Crossmark Global Investments CEO and chief investment officer Bob Doll set out his early 2025 market views in a television appearance, reviewing his annual prediction scoreboard and weighing inflation’s path as investors scan the new year for clues. Speaking on the program Making Money, he discussed how price pressures, interest rates, and corporate earnings could shape portfolios and sentiment.
The discussion came as markets continue to debate whether inflation will cool enough to justify rate cuts or linger and pressure growth. Doll’s review of his scorecard offered a look at what worked in the prior year and what may need updating as conditions shift.
Inflation Outlook and the Fed’s Next Moves
Doll framed inflation as the key variable for 2025. Price growth fell from its pandemic-era peak, but it has not returned to pre-2020 trends in a durable way. The Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to the highest level in about two decades by 2023 to tame inflation. The open question now is timing and pace of any easing.
If inflation continues to ease, the Fed could consider cuts, which would support rate-sensitive sectors. If inflation proves sticky, borrowing costs could stay high longer, weighing on housing and smaller firms. Doll emphasized the need to watch wage growth, shelter costs, and energy. Each can sway the path of headline inflation and policy choices.
A Scoreboard for Accountability
Doll’s “prediction scoreboard” is a regular feature of his outlook. The scorecard tracks calls on growth, inflation, rates, and market leadership. The goal is to test forecasts against actual results and refine the process. This approach can help investors separate signal from noise.
Reviewing what worked can reveal which assumptions held up. Reviewing misses can expose blind spots. That exercise often highlights how sensitive markets are to the path of earnings and policy changes. It also reminds investors that discipline and risk controls matter as much as any single forecast.
Market Themes to Watch in 2025
Equities enter 2025 with mixed crosscurrents. Earnings growth benefited from cost controls and productivity gains in many large companies. Higher rates, however, raised the hurdle for valuations and debt-heavy balance sheets. As Doll noted, inflation and rates will likely set the tone for sector leadership.
- Lower inflation and rate cuts could favor small caps, housing, and interest-rate sensitive industries.
- Stubborn inflation and steady rates could support energy, parts of financials, and firms with strong pricing power.
- A soft landing would help cyclical winners, while a growth scare would push investors back to defensive areas.
Global factors also matter. Supply chains are more stable than in 2021–2022, yet geopolitical risk and shipping routes still influence costs. A stronger dollar can pressure multinational earnings. A weaker dollar can ease that pressure and lift commodities.
Risks, Catalysts, and Investor Playbook
Doll’s discussion underscored several watchpoints. Labor markets remain tight in many regions, keeping upward pressure on wages. Shelter costs are cooling in some data but can lag. Energy prices are volatile. Each can speed or slow disinflation.
Corporate guidance in the coming earnings season will serve as a reality check. Margins improved in recent quarters, but sustained gains depend on revenue growth and cost control. Balance sheets with shorter debt maturities face refinancing at higher rates, which can dent profits.
Investors weighing these factors may consider diversification and liquidity plans. Dollar-cost averaging can help manage entry points. Tax planning and rebalancing can trim concentration risk built during long market runs.
What History Suggests
Past cycles show that once inflation starts to cool, markets often look ahead to easier policy. Yet paths are rarely smooth. The 1990s saw disinflation with strong growth and rising stocks. The early 2000s featured uneven earnings and rate shifts that produced sharp rotations. Recent years added the complication of supply shocks and rapid policy changes.
For 2025, the lesson is to prepare for multiple outcomes. Scenarios matter more than a single point forecast. That is the logic behind Doll’s scoreboard and his focus on tracking what the data say next.
Doll’s appearance offered a practical frame for a year that may hinge on inflation’s last mile and the Fed’s response. The next steps will come through monthly data on prices, jobs, and consumer demand, and through company outlooks. Investors will watch for confirmation that disinflation is intact, or signs it is stalling. The balance between those signals could steer rates, sector leadership, and risk appetite through 2025.
