Escalating Israel-Iran conflict roils global markets

Andrew Dubbs
By Andrew Dubbs
3 Min Read
Escalating Israel-Iran conflict roils global markets

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, with investors closely monitoring the situation for potential impacts on oil supply and economic stability. Stock futures rebounded slightly early Monday as the spike in oil prices, driven by the hostilities, eased momentarily. However, gains were modest as traders remained wary of the rising geopolitical risks.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 157 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite added 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Oil prices pulled back to $72.64 a barrel after trading above $77 earlier in the overnight session. The conflict, now in its fourth day, has seen both countries targeting each other’s energy facilities.

Iran has suggested it may shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies. Israel claimed on Monday to have achieved “aerial superiority” over Iran, according to a military spokesperson.

Ed Mills, Raymond James’ Washington policy analyst, noted that “The strikes represent the largest attack on Iranian territory since the 1980s.

Israel-Iran conflict impacts markets

The risks of regional escalation are heightened.”

The hostilities led to a significant sell-off in stocks on Friday, with the Dow dropping more than 700 points. All three major indexes fell by more than 1% during the trading day, pushing them into negative territory for the week.

Investors will be monitoring manufacturing survey data due Monday morning, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. Fed funds futures indicate a nearly 97% likelihood of the central bank keeping rates unchanged, despite pressure from President Donald Trump for a rate cut. Asia-Pacific markets rose on Monday as investors assessed the tensions and parsed data from China.

Mainland China’s index ended the day 0.25% higher, while Hong Kong’s added 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose, and South Korea’s Kospi index surged 1.8%. As the conflict continues, the uncertain economic outlook has left markets jittery.

Analysts caution that Iran could threaten oil exports from the Persian Gulf by blocking shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which would severely disrupt global energy markets. The relative calm and continuous output from the Middle East play a crucial role in providing equilibrium in a world closely monitoring any potential disruptions.

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Andrew covers investing for www.considerable.com. He writes on the latest news in the stock market and the economy.