The S&P 500 is poised to climb after Thursday’s jobs report, according to JPMorgan analysts. The report looks at what the market expects and what investors want to see from the upcoming employment data. JPMorgan projects that the S&P 500 could rise in response to the jobs report.
If job additions hit 145,000 or more, analysts see a 5% chance of a 1% to 1.5% gain in the S&P 500. If the number is between 125,000 to 145,000 jobs, there is a 25% probability of up to a 1.25% increase. But expectations suggest a gain in the S&P 500 is probable as long as job additions top 105,000.
Below this level, small declines may happen. Investors are especially focused on the various data prints related to jobs and employment this week.
JPMorgan on S&P 500 predictions
Earlier data, including JOLTS and ADP private payrolls, provide context to the upcoming jobs report. A key question is whether the employment data will show enough weakness to push the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively before September. The market expects about 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, possibly starting in September.
This would hinge on consistent trends in the next few employment reports leading up to the Fed’s July meeting. Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell, speaking in Portugal, also stressed that the focus goes beyond the immediate employment situation.
Broader economic impacts and long-term scenarios, including the current tax bill in Congress, are also being considered. Thursday’s jobs report is expected to provide important data that could impact market movements and Federal Reserve policy decisions in the near term.
