President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have sent shockwaves through the stock market, causing significant declines and raising concerns about a potential recession. The S&P 500 has lost 15% of its value since Trump’s inauguration, marking the worst start to a presidential term in modern history. The market downturn is largely attributed to Trump’s tariff policies, which threaten to turn a once-booming economy into a recession.
Two-thirds of the 15% fall in the S&P 500 happened after Trump’s “Liberation Day” event, where he announced an acceleration of tariff increases, alarming the business community. The current market plunge can be compared to significant historical market crashes such as the 1987 crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the Covid crash of 2020. Unlike previous presidents who took office during market declines, Trump inherited a strong market, making it easier to attribute the sharp decline directly to his policies.
Beyond Wall Street, the larger economy is also showing signs of trouble. More than three in five Americans are somehow involved in the stock market, making the divide between Wall Street and Main Street less distinct. Many Americans could feel the effects of these market declines directly.
David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, compared the impact of Trump’s tariffs to the oil price shock during the Yom Kippur War, noting that these tariffs act as a significant tax increase on American consumers, leading to higher inflation coupled with slow growth or recession. According to various financial institutions, the probability of a recession has increased. JPMorgan has raised the chance of a recession to 60% from a previous 40%, and Goldman Sachs has increased it from 20% to 45%.
The potential for recession and declining consumer confidence and investment portfolios pose a considerable risk. The median loss for the S&P 500 during a recession is 27%, indicating that further declines could be on the horizon if the market becomes convinced a recession is imminent. The combination of falling consumer spending and shaken confidence could further destabilize the economy.
The situation remains precarious as businesses, consumers, and policymakers await more data to confirm whether a recession is indeed looming. Amid the economic upheaval, Wikipedia’s volunteer editors have diligently chronicled the turbulence in the open-access encyclopedia.
Market downturn largely attributed to tariffs
The main Wikipedia entry is titled “2025 stock market crash,” but there is an ongoing debate about whether the title should be changed to “2025 stock market decline.
The debate reveals some cracks beneath the surface, with editors having starkly different views on how Wikipedia should best serve readers. Archivists believe that Wikipedia should only include entries that are thought to have long-term historical significance. At the same time, the updaters argue that the site’s articles should reflect the current media and public framing of significant events. This debate matters because Wikipedia isn’t just a reference site—it’s a living archive that provides information infrastructure to the broader internet.
Consumers, investors, journalists, and A.I. models all rely on its language, whether they realize it or not. A single word can potentially shape both market sentiment and public memory. Yesterday, President Donald Trump experienced a stark lesson in the power of capital.
He announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs after stock markets plummeted in response to his policy. The initial tariffs severely shocked global markets, causing significant losses for investment portfolios. Financial leaders voiced their concerns immediately, with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warning of potential economic slowdown and recession.
Billionaires and business leaders joined the chorus, with Bill Ackman warning of economic disaster and Ken Griffin calling for action against the tariffs. Conservative billionaires Charles Koch and Leonard Leo even took legal action challenging Trump’s authority on the tariffs. The backlash highlighted an essential lesson for Trump: capital rules.
Any threat to profits risks severe pushback from the financial elite. Trump’s economic nationalism, intended to bolster American business, scrambled into an unexpected lesson in the limits of presidential power against entrenched capital interests. Ultimately, Trump acquiesced, placing a ninety-day pause on the tariffs.
This incident underscores the enormous influence of capital on policy and the inevitable concessions even the most powerful leaders must make to maintain economic stability. The temporary pause on tariffs reveals a broader truth about the delicate balance between politics and capital. Whether Trump’s policies will evolve to accommodate or counter these forces remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the bottom line continues to wield considerable power in shaping policy.
