The US economy is set to release the June nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data on Thursday, a day earlier than usual due to Independence Day. Forecasters expect the addition of 129,000 nonfarm payrolls, compared to 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is likely to stay at 4.2%.
Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly cooling from May’s 0.4%. On Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June will be released. In June, manufacturing activity remained steady, with the flash PMI at 52.0. Employment rose at the strongest pace in a year, although price pressures have intensified.
The ISM Services PMI, expected on Thursday, is forecasted to return to expansion territory, rising to 50.3 from 49.9.
The Eurozone CPI data for June will be released on Tuesday. Expectations are for the headline year-over-year HICP to hold steady at 1.9%, while core HICP might tick lower to 2.3% from 2.4%. Analysts suggest a moderation in price pressures, driven by a slowdown in services and food price inflation, although energy and goods prices might offset this slightly.
A softer inflation release might increase calls for the ECB to ease monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) June Tankan survey will be published on Tuesday.
Economic data forecasts for June
It is expected to show a modest deterioration in business sentiment among large manufacturers and non-manufacturers. The large manufacturers’ diffusion index is anticipated to ease to +10 from +12, impacted by global trade tensions. In contrast, the services sector is expected to remain more resilient due to solid domestic demand.
China will release its official June PMIs on Monday, with a slight improvement expected in manufacturing PMI to 49.8 from 49.5. The non-manufacturing gauge is seen as broadly unchanged. The results will be closely watched for signs of stabilization in external conditions and tariff reductions. The Caixin PMIs will follow later in the week.
Swiss CPI data for June will be reported on Thursday, following a -0.1% year-over-year print in May. This previous decline was mainly attributed to falling energy prices and tourism developments. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently lowered its short-term inflation forecasts, and this data will be crucial to assess the impact of their policies.
Next week will be critical for financial markets with significant data releases from the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, and Switzerland. These indicators will provide insights into global economic trends and potential policy responses from central banks.
